ELO MODEL: NFL Division Chances, Playoff Odds, and Elo Ratings For Each Team

As we gear up for another thrilling NFL season, it’s time to dive into each team’s chances of making the playoffs and winning their respective divisions. These projections are powered by the latest Elo ratings, which measure team performance using a formula that adjusts based on game results, opponent strength, and other critical factors. Whether you’re tracking a favorite contender or keeping an eye on a dark horse, these Elo ratings offer a clear picture of where every team stands heading into the 2024 season. Below, I’ve outlined the playoff odds, division chances, and Elo ratings for all 32 teams as of September 6, 2024, giving you a comprehensive look at how the season might shape up. Use this data to get a sense of which teams are poised for success and which might have an uphill battle.

AFC Teams:

AFC East:

- New York Jets:

  - Playoff Probability: 50%

  - Division Win Probability: 40%

  - Elo Rating: 1590

- Buffalo Bills:

  - Playoff Probability: 50.7%

  - Division Win Probability: 34.5%

  - Elo Rating: 1680

- Miami Dolphins:

  - Playoff Probability: 48.8%

  - Division Win Probability: 31.3%

  - Elo Rating: 1605

- New England Patriots:

  - Playoff Probability: 32.1%

  - Division Win Probability: 3.4%

  - Elo Rating: 1480

AFC South:

- Houston Texans:

  - Playoff Probability: 65.5%

  - Division Win Probability: 59.2%

  - Elo Rating: 1600

- Indianapolis Colts:

  - Playoff Probability: 43.9%

  - Division Win Probability: 18.2%

  - Elo Rating: 1550

- Jacksonville Jaguars:

  - Playoff Probability: 42.5%

  - Division Win Probability: 20.8%

  - Elo Rating: 1575

- Tennessee Titans:

  - Playoff Probability: 35.7%

  - Division Win Probability: 9.5%

  - Elo Rating: 1505

AFC North:

- Baltimore Ravens:

  - Playoff Probability: 57.3%

  - Division Win Probability: 45.5%

  - Elo Rating: 1650

- Cincinnati Bengals:

  - Playoff Probability: 50%

  - Division Win Probability: 33.3%

  - Elo Rating: 1640

- Pittsburgh Steelers:

  - Playoff Probability: 39.2%

  - Division Win Probability: 15.4%

  - Elo Rating: 1530

- Cleveland Browns:

  - Playoff Probability: 39.2%

  - Division Win Probability: 15.4%

  - Elo Rating: 1580

AFC West:

- Kansas City Chiefs:

  - Playoff Probability: 76.4%

  - Division Win Probability: 77.3%

  - Elo Rating: 1700

-  Los Angeles Chargers:

  - Playoff Probability: 47.1%

  - Division Win Probability: 19.6%

  - Elo Rating: 1620

- Las Vegas Raiders:

  - Playoff Probability: 16.9%

  - Division Win Probability: 4.2%

  - Elo Rating: 1510

- Denver Broncos:

  - Playoff Probability: 9.8 %

  - Division Win Probability: 3.8%

  - Elo Rating. 1490

NFC Teams:

NFC East:

- Philadelphia Eagles:

  - Playoff Probability: 79.8%

  - Division Win Probability: 58.3%

  - Elo Rating: 1675

- Dallas Cowboys:

  - Playoff Probability: 67.8%

  - Division Win Probability: 40.8%

  - Elo Ratings 1650

- Washington Commanders:

  - Playoff Probability: 20.2%

  - Division Win Probability: 5%

  - Elo Rating: 1520

- New York Giants:

  - Playoff Probability: 9.8%

  - Division Win Probability: 3.7%

  - Elo Rating: 1520

NFC South:

- Atlanta Falcons:

  - Playoff Probability: 54%

  - Division Win Probability: 40%

  - Elo Rating: 1580

- New Orleans Saints:

  - Playoff Probability: 50%

  - Division Win Probability: 33.3%

  - Elo Rating: 1550

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  - Playoff Probability: 48.2%

  - Division Win Probability: 30.3%

  - Elo Rating: 1550

- Carolina Panthers:

  - Playoff Probability: 13.2%

  - Division Win Probability: 5.6%

  - Elo Rating: 1485

NFC North:

- Detroit Lions:

  - Playoff Probability: 68.7%

  - Division Win Probability: 59.2%

  - Elo Rating: 1620

- Chicago Bears:

  - Playoff Probability: 51.5%

  - Division Win Probability: 20%

  - Elo Rating: 1570

- Green Bay Packers:

  - Playoff Probability: 51.4%

  - Division Win Probability: 15.4%

  - Elo Rating: 1595

-  Minnesota Vikings:

  - Playoff Probability: 39.2%

  - Division Win Probability: 15.4%

  - Elo Rating: 1545

NFC West:

-  San Francisco 49ers:

  - Playoff Probability: 85.5%

  - Division Win Probability: 66.1%

  - Elo Rating: 1705

- Seattle Seahawks:

  - Playoff Probability: 40.7%

  - Division Win Probability: 17.9%

  - Elo Ratings 1625

-  Los Angeles Rams:

  - Playoff Probability: 38.6%

  - Division Win Probability: 14.3%

  - Elo Rating: 1525

-  Arizona Cardinals:

  - Playoff Probability: 25.5%

  -  Division Win Probability: 8.3%

  - Elo Rating: 1500

-- SportsPulse